April 10, 2019

Is the US Economy Due for a Recession?

New York City - Invite Only

Transatlantic Forum

The French-American Foundation hosted a Transatlantic Forum on the potential trajectory of the US economy. Speaking as the guest of honor was Gregory Daco, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics. Below is a brief description of the event from our speaker:

“The US economy grew 2.9% in 2018, matching its strongest performance in over a decade, and by July this economic expansion will be the longest on record. Is a recession due?

With China struggling to sustainably boost its economy, Europe unable to escape a year-long soft patch, and emerging markets not gaining much traction, all eyes are turned to the US economy.

But, with the 2018 fiscal boost dissipating, lingering political and trade uncertainties, and an extremely dovish Fed, the yield curve has inverted for the first time since the Great Recession – a sign that markets believe in a US economic downturn.

While we currently do not foresee a recession on the horizon, there are increased risks that extreme Fed dovishness and an omnipresent recession bias could lead to a self-fulling prophecy. What are the signs to looks for as the Fed attempts of soft-landing of the economy amid turbulent crosswinds?”

Gregory Daco: Gregory Daco is Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics where he is responsible for producing the US economic outlook using Oxford Economics’ proprietary Global Economic Model. Greg directs thematic research on the economy, the Fed and fiscal policy, and leads a team of high caliber economists producing intraday economic, financial market and technical analysis. He conducts regular briefings on the global economy for corporate boards, trade associations and policymakers at all levels. Greg is often quoted in national and global publications and is a frequent guest of CNBC, Bloomberg and NPR.

More on this topic

  • Bloomberg: On the likelihood and shape of a US-China trade deal.
  • Bloomberg: On the impact of low inflation expectations on bond yields.
  • CNBC: On how the fiscally-stimulated US economy prevented a sharper global slowdown.
  • CBS News: On the significance of the yield curve inversion.
  • WSJ: On growth implications of weaker-than-expected services sector revenue.
  • The Hill: On the risks from the recession bias and self-fulfilling prophecies.

Learn more about the event